Diagnosis of Water Resources in the Ribeirão Baguaçu Sub-Basin and Proposals for Sustainable Solutions

Abstract

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study aimed to assess the water availability of the Ribeirão Baguaçu sub-basin, in the State of São Paulo, providing support for sustainable water resource management and proposing solutions to mitigate scarcity risks.

Methodology: Data on water supply and demand, as well as environmental, physiographic, and morphometric characteristics of the sub-basin, were analyzed.

Originality/relevance: The research stands out for integrating socioeconomic, environmental, physiographic, morphological, pedological, rainfall regime, and water use data, enabling a detailed diagnosis at a local scale. This approach not only identifies the reduction in water availability over time but also links the impacts of anthropic land occupation patterns, providing robust evidence for integrated and sustainable management of water resources in critical basins.

Results: The data indicated that only 4.62% of the area remains covered by native vegetation, with current land use favoring erosive processes and siltation. Between 2010 and 2024, a 6.44% reduction in average annual rainfall was observed, reaching 8.41% between 2020 and 2024. This decrease affected water supply (Q7-10), with reductions of 10.12% (2010–2024) and 13.35% (2020–2024). The largest granted demand refers to surface water abstraction, with public supply and industrial activities as the main consumers.

Theoretical/methodological contributions: The integrated analysis of water supply and demand highlighted a structural deficit and the risk of collapse during periods of scarcity, reinforcing the need for adaptive planning and management.

Social and environmental contributions: The study points to the urgency of preservation, recovery, and conservation actions for the water source, involving coordinated efforts among public authorities, environmental agencies, the productive sector, and civil society. Such measures are essential to ensure water availability for future generations, reduce conflicts over resource use, and promote a balance between economic development and environmental preservation.