Forecasting Urban Form Growth and Expansion Vectors

A Case Study in Caxias do Sul, Farroupilha, and Flores da Cunha

Abstract

Objective – This study aims to analyze the physical and structural factors that influence the dynamics of urban growth in the municipalities of Caxias do Sul, Farroupilha, and Flores da Cunha, located in the Metropolitan Region of Serra Gaúcha, with an emphasis on understanding geometric deformations and vectors of urban expansion.

Methodology – The research is based on an urban morphology approach, complemented by spatial analysis techniques. The urbanized area and geometric deformations of the settlements were measured, considering topographic, hydrographic, and infrastructural factors that guide or restrict expansion in different directions.

Originality/Relevance – The study addresses a theoretical gap linking urban morphology and growth processes in medium-sized cities within specific regional contexts. Its originality lies in proposing a predictive analysis model of urban expansion that considers the interaction between physical and structural factors, applied to municipalities with rugged topography and strong economic dynamics.

Results – The results indicated that certain growth vectors present higher viability due to topography and the road network, while others face significant restrictions, such as areas near the Taquari River and regions with steep slopes. The application of impedance factors enabled a proportional redistribution of growth percentages, adjusting the projection model to the actual territorial conditions.

Theoretical/Methodological Contributions – The research contributes by consolidating an urban analysis methodology that combines measurements of urbanized area and geometric deformations, allowing for more precise predictive modeling of urban growth and a better understanding of the relationship between morphology and territorial constraints.

Social and Environmental Contributions – The study provides subsidies for sustainable territorial planning, highlighting the need to direct urbanization toward environmentally and infrastructurally suitable areas. Additionally, it indicates ways to mitigate negative impacts in sensitive regions, contributing to more effective public policies for managing regional urban growth.