Regulatory volatility as an indicator of urban (un)sustainability

Abstract

Objective – This article aims to analyze the frequency of changes in municipal urban legislation on urban sustainability, taking four medium-sized municipalities as empirical objects: Marabá (PA), Barreiras (BA), Rondonópolis (MT), and Pouso Alegre (MG).

Methodology – Master plans and complementary laws on land subdivision, use, and occupation, as well as changes to urban boundaries, enacted over approximately 20 years were surveyed, considering the first generation of master plans instituted in the early 2000s as the starting point. These were organized and categorized according to their nature. The results were analyzed by municipality and compared, and presented in graphs to identify patterns of instability and their implications for the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of urban sustainability.

Originality/Relevance – The study fills a gap identified in the literature on sustainability applied to the production of urban space, marked by a scarcity of research investigating sustainability in legislative production in a broad sense, considering the volume and frequency of laws, and not just the content of specific norms. Thus, it aims to contribute to the advancement of the academic debate on the production of urban space guided by principles of sustainability, highlighting how the production of laws can impact these processes.

Results – The number of legislative changes highlights a scenario of regulatory volatility that has significant impacts on the three dimensions of sustainability: social, economic, and environmental. In the cases analyzed, the changes occurred predominantly in land use and occupation laws, followed by changes in master plans and urban perimeters, revealing institutional instability that weakens the coherence of sustainability policies and compromises the protection of sensitive areas, legal certainty, social equity, and economic and public policy efficiency. The results thus indicate that regulatory volatility is a critical factor for the effectiveness of urban sustainability.

Theoretical/Methodological Contributions – In the theoretical field, the study contributes to the premise that regulatory volatility compromises the effectiveness of urban sustainability policies, highlighting the disconnect between goals and practices. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the relevance of systematically surveying legislative changes and categorizing laws as a tool for analyzing patterns of instability and informing reflections on the effectiveness of sustainable development policies.

Social and Environmental Contributions – Socially, the frequent changes in urban laws identified in the study can reduce legal certainty, compromise equity in access to urban resources, and undermine popular participation, representing an obstacle to social justice. Environmentally, such changes can weaken the protection of sensitive areas, increase pressure on natural resources, and compromise the ecological resilience of cities.